Good Morning from #Germany, which is trailing badly in the global growth race. Since 2017, the economy has barely grown at all, while US GDP has surged more than 19%, Spain 13%, and France 8%.

Tech looks vulnerable, warns Apollo strategist Torsten Slok. He shared a “chart of doom” comparing today’s S&P 500 with its path from the mid-1990s to the peak of the dot-com bubble in 2000 – suggesting the current rally could end the same way. Slok acknowledges that AI will transform lives and boost productivity, but argues that doesn’t justify today’s valuations. He points to Tesla’s sky-high P/E of 200 and Nvidia’s 60 as evidence of froth. He also believes AI will disrupt software so deeply that “many companies could go out of business because of ChatGPT.” For him, the current euphoria has uncomfortable echoes of the 1990s tech bubble.

Good morning from #Germany, where 30y bond yields climbed to 3.35%, the highest level since 2011. Investors are demanding higher term premia as the surge in bond supply weighs on the market.

A reinvention of American capitalism? The Trump adm is in talks w/Intel about the US govt potentially taking a stake in the struggling chipmaker – a move aimed at supporting its push to expand domestic manufacturing. Direct govt ownership in this once-iconic tech giant would mark a major turning point in US econ policy.

#Bitcoin briefly hit another all-time high, rising in step with U.S. equities as investors ramped up risk-taking across global markets on growing hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut. (BBG)

Good Morning from #Germany, where RWE’s share price tells a clear story about the country’s AI lag. Since ChatGPT’s launch, RWE shares have dropped 18%, while the GS Power Up America Index—tracking 39 U.S. energy companies expanding power supply for AI—has surged 157%. Today, RWE hit a two-month low after reporting weak results.

Good Morning from #Germany, where the new Chancellor Friedrich Merz marks 100 days in office today – and the record is grim. Approval ratings have sunk below 30%. For comparison, Olaf Scholz was still >50% after 100 days, while Angela Merkel enjoyed >70%. Financial markets aren’t impressed either. Since taking office on May 6, the Dax has risen just 2%, lagging the S&P 500 (+10%), Spain’s Ibex (+11%), and Italy’s FTSE MIB (+9%). Germany’s relative credit standing has also slipped. #Italy's risk premium on 10y Bunds has narrowed from 108bps to just 77, signaling a faster improvement for Italy.

Mixed US inflation report: Headline CPI for July held steady at +2.7%, slightly below expected 2.8%. Core inflation (excl food & energy) picked up, rising to 3.1% from 2.9%, which is hotter than 3.0% forecast. July CPI report keeps Fed on track to cut next month, @knowledge_vital says.

Now even the ZEW Index – a key gauge of investor sentiment toward Germany – is falling. Despite the benchmark index Dax trading near record highs, investor expectations have slipped: The expectations component dropped to 34.7 The current conditions assessment fell further into negative territory at -68.6 This suggests that investors are growing increasingly pessimistic about Germany's economic outlook, despite the stock market's apparent strength.

Good Morning from #Germany, where the cost of Nutella is rising faster than overall inflation. A 750g jar has gone up by nearly 40% since 2019, far outpacing Germany’s general inflation rate of 21.8% over the same period. But this isn’t just about hazelnut spread: food prices in Germany as a whole have climbed by 38.4% since the end of 2019, acc to Eurostat’s Food CPI. That’s much higher than in Italy (+29.5%) or France (+25.9%), highlighting how sharply grocery bills have risen in Germany.