Meine einzige Vorhersage für 2026 ist, dass die drei MetaDAO-Kohorten von Eigentums-Coins (2024: MetaDAO // 2025: Avici, Umbra usw. // 2026: TBD) die Ergebnisse von Crypto VC für die gleichen Zeiträume übertreffen werden — (1) DPI und TVPI im Vergleich zur Marktkapitalisierung relativ zu USD, die investiert wurden (2) Umsatz relativ zu USD, die investiert wurden Das ist eine Wette mit hohem Rand / niedrigem Brier. Ich glaube nicht, dass die Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass die MetaDAO-Kohorten gewinnen, >70% ist (und sie könnte nicht einmal höher als >50% sein), aber wenn sie es tun, haben sich die Kapitalmärkte für immer verändert.
Felipe Montealegre
Felipe Montealegre2. Dez. 2025
after many good faith discussions over the past few weeks, I believe I have bridged the MetaDAO gap with many 'ownership coin' skeptics. The one criticism that comes up again and again is the idea that you cannot build a company (or fund) with a live and liquid token. It's a fair criticism. The burden of proof should be on the experiment, and most companies (and funds) across time have been built under the shelter of private markets. I personally believe that we will come to appreciate the role of liquid markets in the startup process and laid out my thoughts below but ultimately these are just the words and fallible thoughts of somebody who has not built a big company. I propose the following experiment. At the end of 2026, we should compare the three cohorts of MetaDAO ownership coins (2024: MetaDAO // 2025: Avici, Umbra, etc // 2026: TBD) with Crypto VC results for the same periods on — (1) DPI and TVPI versus Market Cap relative to USD invested (2) Revenue relative to USD invested I believe these two metrics fairly cover (i) results for investors and (ii) value creation for the broader ecosystem. We should track them over time as well because it is possible that some models work better early on and some models work better >3 years. In (1), we should compare Market Cap versus both DPI and TVPI. It would be unfair to compare Market Cap only versus DPI because there are still many good companies that have not returned capital and will ultimately improve results for the VC comp group. It would not be fair to compare versus TVPI only either because the ownership coin investors do provide the benefit of early liquidity, and market cap on a full float token cannot be faked to the same extent as TVPI. I propose using Circulating Market Cap as that is the amount absorbed by the market. This methodology seems pretty fair to me. If Ownership Coins can compete on Market Cap / USD Investment and Revenue / USD Invested then both investors and those of us focused on vale creation can be happy with the mechanism as another option for founders looking to raise capital. If ownership coins fail the test, then we should bayesian update in favor of those proclaiming that companies cannot go 0 to 1 while being public. This is approximately how the ownership coin numbers look today (although I took some liberties on MetaDAO Revenue as they essentially just turned on the fee switch so I annualized then shaved off 60%). Ownership Coin Stats Total Amount Raised: $38M Total Market Cap: $257M Total Revenue: $5M Ratio (Market Cap / USD Raised): 6.8x % (Revenue / USD Raised): 10%
Wenn MetaDAO bei diesen Tests schlecht abschneidet, werde ich der Erste sein, der das Modell in Frage stellt. Viele Menschen werden auf der anderen Seite dieser Wette stehen (deshalb ist der Vorteil so hoch). Wenn du das bist, warte einfach ab und beobachte die Daten. Diese Debatte wird live mit echtem Marktfeedback stattfinden. Unsere Worte sind nicht annähernd so wichtig wie die Marktdaten. Am Ende wird die Realität das Urteil fällen.
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