min enda förutsägelse för 2026 är att de tre MetaDAO-kohorterna av ägarmynt (2024: MetaDAO // 2025: Avici, Umbra, etc // 2026: TBD) kommer att överträffa Crypto VC-resultat under samma perioder på — (1) DPI och TVPI mot börsvärde i förhållande till investerad USD (2) Intäkter i förhållande till investerad USD Detta är ett högt edge / låg Brier-spel. Jag tror inte att sannolikheten för att MetaDAO-kohorter vinner är >70 % (och det kanske inte ens är högre än >50 %), men om de gör det har kapitalmarknaderna förändrats för alltid.
Felipe Montealegre
Felipe Montealegre2 dec. 2025
after many good faith discussions over the past few weeks, I believe I have bridged the MetaDAO gap with many 'ownership coin' skeptics. The one criticism that comes up again and again is the idea that you cannot build a company (or fund) with a live and liquid token. It's a fair criticism. The burden of proof should be on the experiment, and most companies (and funds) across time have been built under the shelter of private markets. I personally believe that we will come to appreciate the role of liquid markets in the startup process and laid out my thoughts below but ultimately these are just the words and fallible thoughts of somebody who has not built a big company. I propose the following experiment. At the end of 2026, we should compare the three cohorts of MetaDAO ownership coins (2024: MetaDAO // 2025: Avici, Umbra, etc // 2026: TBD) with Crypto VC results for the same periods on — (1) DPI and TVPI versus Market Cap relative to USD invested (2) Revenue relative to USD invested I believe these two metrics fairly cover (i) results for investors and (ii) value creation for the broader ecosystem. We should track them over time as well because it is possible that some models work better early on and some models work better >3 years. In (1), we should compare Market Cap versus both DPI and TVPI. It would be unfair to compare Market Cap only versus DPI because there are still many good companies that have not returned capital and will ultimately improve results for the VC comp group. It would not be fair to compare versus TVPI only either because the ownership coin investors do provide the benefit of early liquidity, and market cap on a full float token cannot be faked to the same extent as TVPI. I propose using Circulating Market Cap as that is the amount absorbed by the market. This methodology seems pretty fair to me. If Ownership Coins can compete on Market Cap / USD Investment and Revenue / USD Invested then both investors and those of us focused on vale creation can be happy with the mechanism as another option for founders looking to raise capital. If ownership coins fail the test, then we should bayesian update in favor of those proclaiming that companies cannot go 0 to 1 while being public. This is approximately how the ownership coin numbers look today (although I took some liberties on MetaDAO Revenue as they essentially just turned on the fee switch so I annualized then shaved off 60%). Ownership Coin Stats Total Amount Raised: $38M Total Market Cap: $257M Total Revenue: $5M Ratio (Market Cap / USD Raised): 6.8x % (Revenue / USD Raised): 10%
Om MetaDAO presterar sämre på dessa tester kommer jag att vara den första att ifrågasätta modellen. Många kommer att vara på andra sidan av detta spel (därför är det High Edge). Om det gäller dig, vänta bara och titta på datan. Denna debatt kommer att utspela sig live med verklig marknadsfeedback. Våra ord är inte alls lika viktiga som marknadsdata. I slutändan kommer verkligheten att avgöra domen.
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